Stephen Clinton, Consultant, Young & Associates, Inc.

02/2012

Economic Overview
The weak recovery continues to dominate the economy. The actions taken by the Federal Reserve, Quantitative Easing, Operation Twist, and holding interest rates at near zero since early 2009, have failed to stimulate the economy beyond anemic growth. Further compounding the depressed market pricing for banks is the euro-zone debt crisis that has weakened European banks and reduced the growth prospects for U.S. European exports.

A variety of factors deserve watching in 2012. Of particular importance are:

• Federal Reserve – The Fed, meeting in early December, continued its Fed Funds target in a range of zero to 25 b.p. The Fed now indicates that it anticipates a zero-rate Fed Funds stance through at least mid-2013. With $2.3 trillion of purchases in housing and government debt now on its books from two rounds of asset purchases from December 2008 through June 2011, many wonder what other options are available to the Fed to stimulate the economy.
• Inflation – After surging early in 2011, signs are that inflation is slowing. Commodity prices, which were a concern early in 2011, have moderated. Copper prices are down 21% from the levels seen earlier this year. The price for natural gas has fallen since April. The Commerce Department’s measure of consumer prices for November stood only 2.5% above levels a year ago.
• Employment – The unemployment rate was reported at 8.6% in November. Employment gains are not anticipated to be huge in 2012. The weak U.S. economy along with the European turmoil is anticipated to keep businesses from adding employees.
• Oil Prices – Oil futures finished at their highest level in eight months in early January 2012. Heightened tensions between Iran and the West raised fears of potential supply disruptions.

The Mideast:

• Iraq – The last combat troops in Iraq pulled out in December 2011, ending almost nine years of U.S. troops in that country.
• Afghanistan – Approximately 91,000 U.S. soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines are now stationed in Afghanistan, battling a stubborn Taliban insurgency and struggling to train Afghan forces so that they eventually can take over security.
• 2012 Elections – The Republican Presidential primary campaign to choose a candidate to oppose President Obama in November is underway. It appears that the economy and job growth will be the central issues of contention.
• Home Prices – The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index showed that home prices fell 3.4% in October from the previous year. This marks the thirteenth consecutive year-to-year reported decline. With an estimated 22% of homeowners with a mortgage owing more than their homes are worth, continued declining real estate values create concerns.
• Consumer Confidence – The Conference Board reported that its index of consumer confidence jumped in December to its highest level since April.
• Deficit – As of late 2011 it was reported that China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries were at $1.1 trillion, making China the largest foreign holder of Treasuries. Japan was reported as the second largest holder at $950 billion.

Bank Regulation Update

• The Dodd-Frank Act was passed in 2010. Regulators were supposed to spend 2011 implementing the massive regulatory reform legislation. Of the 400 new rules required by Dodd-Frank, less than 25% have been finalized. Major issues outstanding include:
• Risk retention rules
• Volker rules
• Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
• Two other areas of bank regulation are also attracting the attention of bankers: 1) the resolution of government control of the GSEs and 2) the implementation of Basel international capital standards for major U.S. banks, including the requirement for 1% to 2.5% of additional common equity.

Market Update
The general stock market recorded a disappointing year for investors. The Nasdaq Index fell 1.80% following a 16.91% increase in 2010. The major corporations did a little better in 2011, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index rising 5.53% in 2011, compared to a gain of 11.02% in 2010.

Banks under-performed the general stock market in 2011. The KBW Bank Index declined 24.57% in 2011, offsetting 2010’s increase of 22.24%. Bank stocks since year-end 2007, as measured by the KBW Bank Index, have fallen 55.55%. Causes for the decline in bank stocks include: the credit crisis, the slow economy, high unemployment, government deficits, the euro-zone debt crisis, and political uncertainty. Banks also seem to be in the news media daily which has bred mistrust of bankers. Further depressing bank pricing are uncertainties related to exposures to derivatives, underwater mortgages (home loans and commercial real estate), loan servicing violations, and other litigation related to securitization activities. Finally, analysts continually mention the unknown costs for banks that will be incurred to meet new regulatory obligations.

Considering all of the issues facing banks today, it is understandable that many investors have fled the financial sector. For many years, banks enjoyed stable profitability and investors received predictable dividends. Since the credit crisis, banks have struggled with profitability issues and dividends have been slashed. Despite the fact that the banking industry today holds a 50-year high in capital levels, regulators are pressing many to further increase their capital ratios. Regulators are limiting dividend payouts and conducting further arbitrary stress tests. Until investors can predict stable profits and decent dividends from their bank investments, we suspect that bank pricing will continue to be discounted.

Short-term interest rates ended slightly lower with the 3-month T-Bill ending the year at 0.02%, down from 0.12% as of December 31, 2010. The 10-Year T-Note ended the year at 1.89%, compared to 3.30% at December 31, 2010. This is evidence that the Fed’s efforts to lower long-term interest rates are working. The average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage fell to 4.05% for the week ending December 23, the lowest in 60 years.

Merger and Acquisition Activity
In 2011, there were 156 bank and thrift announced merger transactions. This activity is lower than in 2010 where we had 174 deals. From 2000 through 2007, the industry averaged 240 mergers. The decline in the merger activity has been caused by a variety of factors including: the number of bank failures, which provided expansion alternatives to traditional mergers; lower market pricing for buyers making mergers more dilutive; concern over the asset quality of potential sellers; and higher capital requirements and industry profitability issues, which have reduced the number of potential buyers.

The median price to tangible book for transactions involving bank sellers was 107% which is comparable to 2010. The low pricing for sellers is representative of the smaller asset size (median of $130 million) and a high level of problem assets held by bank sellers (average of 4.75%).

In addition to the low level of merger activity noted above, in 2011 bank failures were down significantly. Some 90 banks failed in 2011, down from 157 in 2010. There are still 844 banks on the regulators’ problem-bank list, and many of these are anticipated to fail over the next two years.

Thoughts for Bankers in 2012
2012 will probably bring better things for bankers. After the last several years, we are due for some better times. We face uncertainties concerning the issues noted above. Political gridlock will probably continue this election year. The implementation of new banking regulation will continue to keep bankers busy. Hopefully, however, the heightened attention bankers have received will diminish as the 24-hour news cycle focuses on other matters, such as the Presidential election.

We urge bankers to increase their focus on liquidity management this year. The industry is awash with cash which may move seeking better returns as some stability returns to the market.

The industry has made significant strides in strengthening our balance sheets with improving credit quality and lowering the level of problem assets. We need to continue to resolve our efforts to reduce problem assets and continue to be diligent with new loans being booked.

We must be cautious that the long period of low interest rates does not lead to complacency regarding interest rate risk management. We do not expect interest rates to move significantly upward in 2012; but we do believe that interest rates will rise in the future. Those bank managements that are booking longer-term, fixed-rate loans and securities funded with shorter-term liabilities in order to improve near-term profitability will suffer the consequences when interest rates rise. The industry has suffered from poor interest rate risk practices in the past and we encourage bank managements to avoid the temptation of reaching for short-term profitability by mis-matching the maturities of assets and liabilities.

For more information on our Capital Market services, please contact Stephen Clinton at 1.800.376.8662 or click here to send Stephen an Email.

Stephen Clinton, President, Capital Market Securities, Inc.

09/2011

Market Highlights
Political

• The focus of the world turned to Washington, D.C., as legislators and the Administration haggled over increasing the debt ceiling. August 2, 2011 was acknowledged as the deadline for the government to reach a point where it could not pay all of its financial obligations. A number of proposals were debated related to how much to raise the debt ceiling, identification of future spending cuts, and potential tax increases. At the eleventh hour, Congress and the Administration reached a compromise that resolved the impasse. Despite the agreement, S&P downgraded its rating on U.S. debt. This action surprised many and shook up the credit markets.
• The recent euro-zone countries’ plan to provide a $157 billion bailout to Greece appears to provide a solution to the debt crisis that has weighed on the financial markets for some time.
• The U.S. involvement in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya continues to strain military resources and impact the deficit. It appears that the planned December 31 withdrawal deadline for fighting forces in Iraq remains in place. In Afghanistan, 33,000 “surge” forces are scheduled to be withdrawn over the next twelve months.
• The race among Republican presidential candidates seeking to challenge President Obama in the fall of 2012 has begun. Candidates are traveling the country building support and raising funds for their campaigns.

Economic

• The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of manufacturing activity slipped to its lowest level in two years in July. Auto sales recorded soft months in May and June.
• Consumer confidence edged higher in July as jitters over the outlook eased, though consumers remained gloomy about their current situations, according to a private sector report. The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 59.5 from a downwardly revised 57.6 for June.
• The Fed, meeting in late June, downgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy's performance, but gave no indication that it intends to take new steps to boost economic growth and jobs. Instead, officials said they are sticking with plans to end quantitative easing which resulted in the purchase of $600 billion in U.S. Treasuries and to keep short-term interest rates near zero.
• Oil prices have moved upward to nearly $100 a barrel.
• The Case-Shiller report indicates that home price declines are moderating. Another index, CoreLogic Inc., evaluates home prices including and excluding distressed sales (bank-owned foreclosures). This analysis indicates that non-distressed home sales are not reporting price declines and that home price data may be highly skewed by the high level of distressed sales.
• The U.S. Labor Department reported a rise in unemployment for June to 9.2% from 9.1%.

Business

• While the U.S. economy has been weak this year, earnings at companies are strong. Preliminary analysis of second quarter earnings releases indicates that corporate profits will be the highest in four years.
• The general stock market has been strong this year:
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 7.2% for the six months ending June 30, 2011.
• The NASDAQ composite index has risen 4.5%.
• Bank prices, as measured by the NASDAQ Bank Index, were down 4.8%.
• Deposit growth for U.S. banks recorded an annual growth of 11% in the second quarter. This growth is the highest in over two years.
• It was recently announced that the Obama administration is evaluating plans to rent government-controlled residential properties (particularly FHLMC and FNMA) rather than continue foreclosures in an effort to stabilize the housing market. While in the early stages of evaluation, such a shift in policy could have significant implications to the housing and rental markets.

In summary, economic conditions remain weak and unemployment remains a concern. There is no political appetite to provide additional government stimulus as deficit concerns dominate political discussions. The Fed appears to have exhausted its tools to promote economic growth. We expect the second half of the year to see a modest improvement in the economy as world economic conditions improve.

Market Update
Short-term interest rates decreased slightly through mid-year with the 3-month T-Bill ending at 0.03%, compared to 0.12% as of December 31, 2010. Longer-term rates have also declined modestly and the 10-year T-Note ended the June quarter at 3.18% compared to 3.30% at December 31, 2010.

The banking sector has failed to follow the general stock market upward in 2011. Bank pricing has been impacted by a variety of issues. Analysts have repeatedly expressed concerns about future bank profitability. They are concerned about the declining revenues and anticipated higher operating costs. Concerns about litigation regarding loan servicing and past mortgage securitizations also have depressed the banking sector.

Merger and Acquisition Activity
Consolidation in the banking industry continues at a historically slow pace. Year to date as of June 30, 2011, there were 79 announced bank and thrift mergers. Approximately 80% of the mergers were bank sellers with only 15 of the transactions involving thrift sellers. The median price to book for transactions involving bank sellers was 108%.

Capital Market Services
Young & Associates, Inc. has a proven record of working with our bank clients in the development and implementation of capital strategies. Through our affiliate, Capital Market Securities, Inc., we have assisted clients in a variety of capital market activities including strategic and capital planning, valuations, buyback programs, the purchase and sale of branches, and merger and acquisition activities.

For more information on our capital market services, please contact Stephen Clinton at 1.800.376.8662 or click here to send Stephen an Email.

Stephen Clinton, President Capital Market Securities, Inc.

09/2011

The June 2011 quarter earnings announcements for public banks were mostly positive. Most of the larger banks exceeded their earnings forecasts. We noted a number of positive trends for the banking industry:

• The profitability of the sector continues to improve.
• The level of problem assets held continues to decline.
• Net charge-offs are decreasing.

Of concern, however, is the decline in net interest income for many. Factors causing the decline include shrinking balance sheets, lower loans-to-assets ratios, and lower net interest margins. The poor economic conditions make finding quality loans difficult for banks. The intense competition for loans provides businesses and consumers the opportunity to reduce their loan rates at the expense of lenders. Also, low yields on securities provide dismal returns on “excess” funds. Some banks are beginning to pursue merger and acquisition activity to improve net interest income.

A recent Federal Appeals Court ruling that overturned a SEC rule that would have allowed shareholders to use a proxy ballot to place a nominee to the board with as little as 3% share control is probably a good thing. The courts ruled that the SEC did not meet a procedural requirement that mandates a cost-benefit analysis and that the lower court failed to take into account the rule’s impact on competition and capital. In banking, we have seen too much distraction of management by dissident shareholders seeking to flip shares and earn a quick return.

We are optimistic that bank prices will trend upward now that the nation’s debt ceiling debate has been resolved. We think that the discounts being applied by the market to banks are overly conservative. We think too much emphasis has been placed on the loss of interchange fee income and heightened regulatory costs. Our experience indicates that banks are innovative and creative and will overcome these concerns and provide investors who purchase strong bank stocks at current levels an above-average return on their investments.

If you would like to contact Stephen, please give him a call at 1.800.525.9775 or click here to send Stephen an Email.

Stephen Clinton, President, Capital Market Securities, Inc.

06/2011

Economic Overview The U.S. economic recovery stumbled in the first quarter with GDP growth reported at only 1.8%, down from 3.1% for the fourth quarter. Inflation was estimated at 3.2% in April. Unemployment was reported at 9.1% in May as job growth was minimal in the month. Retail sales missed expectations for the first time since December. The U.S. auto industry suffered its first significant setback in more than 18 months as new car and truck sales declined 3.7% in May. Of special importance:

• The Federal Reserve continued to maintain an accommodative stance at its April 26th – April 27th meeting, holding its short-term interest rate target at nearly zero, which was set in December 2008 during the financial crisis.
• Oil prices continue to hover near $100 a barrel.
• U.S. military involvement in Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq continues to tap U.S. financial resources.
• The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index showed that prices nationwide fell 4.2% in the first quarter after declining 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2010. The index had seen increases in 2009 and early 2010.
• Foreclosure activity continues to dominate the housing markets. From 2007 to 2010 there were 8.6 million foreclosures. It is estimated that there are another 2 million foreclosures currently being pursued.
• U.S. office space is recording a similar level of vacancy rates (16%) as was experienced in 2003. Meanwhile, malls and shopping centers are averaging a vacancy rate of 9.1%, the highest in 11 years. Strip centers have been especially hard hit.

Dodd-Frank and Other Bank Regulation Update
As we mentioned in our last newsletter, bankers should be carefully monitoring current events surrounding the massive financial overhaul law. Recent items in the news include:

• Durbin Amendment – The Dodd-Frank bill included an amendment to have the Federal Reserve cap debit card fees paid by venders. The Fed has proposed to limit swipe fees at $.12 per debit card transaction, a significant reduction from the current average of $.44. While the Fed has not completed a comprehensive study on its proposal as required by Dodd-Frank, unless Congress takes action, the Fed proposal is scheduled to take effect in July.
• Risk Retention – The Dodd-Frank bill requires banks to hold 5% of the credit risk for mortgages and other loans that are bundled together and sold off as securities. The goal of the risk retention requirement was to have parties conducting securitizations have “skin in the game.” The law provided an exemption for certain “qualifying” loans but left to bank regulators the determination of what would be considered a “qualifying” loan. A draft of risk retention rules has been released and many found the definition to be more narrow than expected. The concern is that borrowing costs are likely to rise for loans that are subject to risk retention requirements because of the higher capitalization that will be required by parties that securitize such loans. There is also a concern that the risk retention rules may change the nature of loan products available, which could further dampen the weak housing market.
• Brokered Deposits – Dodd-Frank also requires the FDIC to conduct a study on core and brokered deposits, evaluating the definitions and looking at issues from how they affect deposit insurance premiums to the potential impact of reforms. The regulatory definition of brokered deposits was developed in the 1980’s. Since then, the market has changed significantly. The growing use of internet-generated deposits and CDARS deposits are expected to be considered as the FDIC conducts its study. Many community banks could be impacted should these funding sources be considered brokered deposits as a result of the FDIC study.
• GSE Reform – The government took over Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in 2008. Since the take over, the two GSEs have cost taxpayers $134 billion.

The Obama administration outlined three options in February to change the way home loans are financed, calling for the slow death of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and jumpstarting the debate over the future role of government in helping borrowers secure mortgages. Recently, House Republicans introduced eight separate bills that were all related to limiting the activities of the GSEs.

Market Update Short-term interest rates have moved slightly downward with the 3-month T-Bill ending May at 0.06%, down from 0.12% as of December 31, 2010. The 10-Year T-Note ended May at 3.05% compared to 3.30% at December 31, 2010.

In the first five months of 2011, the Dow Jones Industrial Index climbed 8.57% while the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.88%. The banking sector, conversely, has declined in 2011 with the NASDAQ Banking Index posting a decrease of 2.69% as of the end of May.

The general stock market has continued its upward climb in 2011. The decline in bank pricing appears to be related to concerns about bank profitability. Among the profitability issues are the slow economy which has led to falling loan balances, the Durbin Amendment, and potential exposure from mortgage securitizations. The extensive media coverage of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s lead role in the proposed loan servicing agreement with major servicers has caused many to worry about the CFPB’s future role in banking oversight.

Merger and Acquisition Activity For the first five months of 2011, there were 58 bank and thrift announced merger transactions. This activity is comparable to last year (59 transactions). The median price to tangible book for transactions involving bank sellers was 101%.

Should your bank need additional guidance, please feel free to contact us at 1.800.525.9775 or click here to send Stephen an Email.

Stephen Clinton, President Capital Market Securities, Inc.

06/2011

The big news for bank investors in the first quarter was the news that the Federal Reserve has approved plans for a number of large banks to increase their dividend payouts and for some to permit share repurchase activity. This is meaningful in that it indicates that the banking regulators believe that the banking crisis is nearing an end.

We are seeing some heightened interest in merger and acquisition activity this year. While the pricing on recently announced deals is disappointing, the return of bank buyers to the market is a good sign.

Approximately 75% of the nation’s banks were profitable in the fourth quarter of 2010. Despite the talk of lack of lending, banks increased their loan balances in the December quarter by approximately 1%.

Bank prices declined modestly in the first five months of 2011, while the general stock market improved. We anticipate that banks will report good earnings for the June quarter. This should result in improved pricing as we move toward the end of the year.

Overall, we think that the banking sector is undervalued. On a price-to-earnings perspective, the industry is trading at a significant discount to the general market. We believe that investors who invest in quality banks will be rewarded as the uncertainties surrounding the industry become resolved.

Should your bank need additional guidance, please feel free to contact us at 1.800.525.9775 or click here to send Stephen an Email.

Stephen Clinton, President, Capital Market Securities, Inc.

03/2011

2010 in Review
At the beginning of 2010 we wrote to bankers about various items that we felt deserved watching. We felt that these identified items might be at the forefront of issues impacting banking.

We noted:

• Politics. – We were concerned about the political climate that banking faced. We noted that President Barack Obama, calling bankers “fat cats,” set the stage for growing tension between the banking industry and politicians. We are pleased that the banking industry was able to achieve some favorable resolution to many of the punitive proposals as the Dodd-Frank legislation became law.
  
  On the heels of the Dodd-Frank legislation, the negative publicity for banking continued as the problems with the foreclosure activities of larger mortgage services become known. Banking analysts have also provided huge estimates for potential mortgage loan put-back exposure for the banking industry, which adds to the uncertainty surrounding banks.
  
  The banking industry has significantly repaid TARP funds, with approximately 85% of TARP funds provided to banks and thrifts being repaid by the end of 2010, providing a handsome return to the Treasury. Despite the success of the TARP program, many continue to call the program a “bank bailout” and seek to further punish banks.
• Commercial Real Estate. – We wrote that “declining values on commercial real estate looms as the next risk to banking.” This was certainly true in 2010 as banks continued to record loan charge offs and added to their loan loss provisions.
  
• Interest Rate Risk – We predicted that the Fed would remain accommodative for some time. We cautioned bankers to properly position their balance sheets for the inevitable rise in interest rates.
  
• FDIC Insurance Premiums. – We noted our concern that the high number of bank failures might cause additional special assessments to strengthen the insolvent FDIC insurance fund. We have been pleased that the industry has been able to avoid additional insurance premium costs.
  
• Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. – We expected the Obama administration to unveil its proposal for the GSEs in 2010. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to be wards of the government since moving into conservatorship in September 2008. Borrowers and bankers have come to rely on an efficient secondary mortgage market. We worry about the impact on home prices and the availability of mortgage funding should GSE resolution plans increase the cost to borrowers for home loans or should the secondary market become less active.

We believe that bankers should continue to keep abreast of the issues noted above. We would add that regulation should be added to the list. It has been reported that the Dodd-Frank legislation is the most extensive overhaul for the U.S. financial system since the 1930s. The law includes nearly 500 required regulatory rulemakings, 81 studies, and 93 Congressional Reports. We are concerned about the added cost of regulatory compliance that banks will face as the rules and regulations are enacted and the new consumer protection agency unfolds. We also hear from many bankers that field examiners continue to take arbitrary positions in the examination process. Finally, we sense that the accounting world is determined to enact rules that could be harmful to bankers and their shareholders.

Market Update
The general stock market recorded improvement in 2010. The Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 11.0% in 2010, compared to the Nasdaq Composite Index’s increase of 16.9%. The improvement in the stock market helped advance the net worth of U.S. households to $54.9 trillion at September 30, 2010. However, this value reflects a 15% loss in net worth held at mid-2007 before the Great Recession began.

Many factors have come into play contributing to the stock market’s performance in 2010.

Specifically:

• The economic recovery, although weak, continued.
  
• Low interest rates continued and the rate of inflation has been low.
  
• The Fed continued to actively support the economy. In 2010 the Fed began a program to buy $600 billion in longer-dated government bonds (“quantitative easing”).
  
• Government spending continues at nearly an all-time high with the U.S.budget deficit in fiscal 2010 (ending in September) reaching $1.294 trillion. This was the second-highest ever, behind the record 2009 deficit of $1.416 trillion.
  
• Market pricing for the banking sector recorded a double-digit improvement in 2010. The Nasdaq Banking Index posted an increase of 11.9%. Smaller banks, those with assets of less than $500 million, recorded a lower price gain, but still were up 7.6%. From a regional perspective, banks in the Southwest recorded the largest price increase, moving up 28.0%, followed by Midwest banks at 22.7%. The chart on the left provides market pricing history for the banking industry compared to selected general stock market indices for 2010.

Note: We recognize that many of our readers may not be affiliated with publicly-traded financial institutions. We do think that managers of privately-traded banks should be aware of market pricing conditions as the market factors impacting the pricing of publicly-traded banks also influence the market value of all banks.

Although banking experienced positive pricing trends for 2010, bank prices are significantly lower than when they reached their highs in late 2007.

The problems facing banks in the last several years have been well chronicled. We have not seen bank failures occurring at this level since the thrift crisis.

Merger and Acquisition Activity
Bank merger activity slowed over the last three years. The depressed pricing for bank stocks made acquisitions less affordable for healthy banks. As the credit crisis stressed most bank loan portfolios, potential buyers have focused on dealing with their loan portfolios rather than adding other banks’ problems to theirs. For the bank sales that have occurred, a majority fall into the “distressed” category. Bank sellers in 2010 averaged a negative return on average assets of 83 basis points compared to a positive 94 basis points in 2007.

The average price to tangible book multiple for transactions involving bank sellers was 112% in 2010, a slight decline from 119% in 2009. This sale pric¬ing is significantly lower than the 251% recorded in 2007.

Capital Market Services
Young & Associates, Inc. has a successful track record of working with our bank clients in the development and implementation of capital strategies. Through our affiliate, Capital Market Securities, Inc., we have assisted clients in a variety of capital market transactions. For more information on our capital market services, please contact Stephen Clinton at 1.800.376.8662 or click here to send Steve an email.

Stephen Clinton, President, Capital Market Securities, Inc.

03/2011

The capital markets provided bank investors some relief in 2010. Bank investors have lost almost one-half of their market value since year-end 2006 (as measured by the broad Nasdaq Bank Index). The early optimism for bank stocks that occurred in April was doused by concerns over the foreclosure mess. The late year-end rally in bank stocks propelled bank pricing towards its year-end gain of 11.9%.

Many investors that followed the bank market in 2010 took advantage of the bank market’s volatility to enhance their returns above those shown above. Investments in companies that were strategic acquirers during the credit crisis performed well in 2010. Certain banks located in the Midwest found investor favor in 2010. Banks that identified their asset quality issues early and moved them toward resolution were rewarded in 2010. Banks that repaid TARP also performed well in 2010.

Young & Associates Inc.’s affiliate, Capital Market Securities, Inc., assumed the management of Financial Institution Partners, LLC, in 2008. Financial Institution Partners principally invests in publicly-traded financial institutions. Financial Institution Partners was able to provide an unaudited annual return to its members of 31.9% in 2010. We provide this example of an above-average market return as evidence that investing in bank stocks remains a good strategy for investors despite the dismal view of the financial services sector that many hold.

We anticipate that 2011 will continue to see bank pricing improvement. Bank earnings are expected to continue to improve as banks are not expected to face the same level of loan losses as economic conditions improve. We expect a number of banks to announce higher dividends once the Fed approves their business plans. For smaller banks, we think the market’s search for undervalued companies will move them higher as well. We expect merger and acquisition activity to accelerate in 2011. Merger announcements tend to push up prices.

Bank investors are encouraged to thoroughly evaluate prospective bank investments. There are risks in the sector. Some banks have conducted stock offerings to repay their TARP that were highly dilutive to their current shareholders. Interest rate risk exposure could create problems for some banks when interest rates rise. Regulatory constraints could depress other bank stocks. In our investing strategies, we place a high value on strong management teams. We look for banks that have a good market position. We currently favor banks that have moved up from their lows but not banks that have high price to earnings or price to tangible book multiples.

Stephen Clinton, President,Capital Market Securities, Inc.

12/2010

Market Update
The general stock market moved upward nicely in the third quarter. The Dow moved up 10.37% while the broader Nasdaq Index moved up 12.30%. Banks did not follow the upward market trend. The Nasdaq Bank Index fell 1.78% in the third quarter. Two major issues depressed banks: concerns over the slow economic recovery, and the issues surrounding foreclosures.

It has become our practice to note items of interest for bankers in this article. Among the items we note are:

• The Federal Reserve data shows that loan balances were less than 57% of total assets on banks’ books, the lowest in “recent memory.”
  
  
• Banks have seen a high number of “failed” equity offerings with 45 SEC-filed security offerings being terminated this year. A lack of demand and an inability to maintain offering pricing were reasons cited for the pulled offerings.
  
  
• While many of the larger banks have repaid their TARP capital, community banks remain stuck in the TARP program. Of the 620 banks remaining in TARP, 73% hold assets of less than $1B. It was reported that 115 banks and thrifts did not make their August dividend payment.
  
  
• According to the Case-Shiller Index, housing prices have fallen 28% from their peak in 2006. It is estimated that commercial real estate prices have fallen by an average of 40% since the credit bubble burst.
  
  
• Low interest rates are impacting many in different ways. Some money market funds have reported that they are unable to generate a sufficient yield to cover their management fees. Sales of fixed-rate annuities fell 45% in the second quarter of 2010, due principally to the low yield offered. Bankers are aware of the low yield available on loans and investments and the heightened refinancing activity lower interest rates have caused.
  
  
• There have been several articles noting that consumers are reducing their debt balances. Revolving accounts, for example, declined $80 billion from June 2009 to June 2010. It is estimated by Evolution Finance that institutions have charged off approximately $20 billion each quarter during that period, an amount equal to the amount of the decline in outstanding credit card debt. This raises concerns as to how much future consumer spending may add to the economy.
  
  
• An article recently reported that commercial real estate (CRE) was the worst-performing loan sector of the 127 banks that had failed through September 24, 2010. They noted that CRE represents, by far, the greatest problem for the smallest banks. The article added that there has been a clear shift in problem loans from construction and land loans to CRE.
  
  
• The Fed has clearly noted its concerns about the poor outlook for the U.S. economy. They appear prepared to provide additional accommodation to support the economy.
  
  
• The mid-term elections provided the Republicans a majority in the House. Republicans also made significant gains in the Senate, eliminating the Democratic 60-vote control. The dramatic gains recorded in the mid-term elections by the Republicans will put pressure on the Democratic agenda and set the stage for battles including health care reform, tax rates, and government spending. Bankers will need to watch the banking committees for events surrounding GSE reform and amendments to the Dodd-Frank legislation.
  
  
• Short-term interest rates remained low in the third quarter, with the 3-month T-Bill ending at 0.16%, compared to 0.06% as of December 31, 2009. The 10-year T-Note ended September at 2.53%, compared to 3.85% at December 31, 2009.
  
  
• The Dow Jones Industrial Index has risen 3.45% in 2010, compared to the Nasdaq Composite Index increase of 4.38%. The banking sector has recorded virtually no change this year as measured by the Nasdaq Banking Index.

Bankers face a challenging environment for the rest of 2010 and 2011. Among items we see as concerns are:

• The new rules and regulations that are required as a result of the Dodd-Frank legislation are likely to add to the cost structure of all banks.
  
  
• The difficult low interest rate period of the last several years has driven down funding costs to a level that will be difficult to reduce further. Many banks may face additional net interest margin pressure as borrowers negotiate even lower loan rates and reinvestment opportunities offer lower returns.
  
  
• Bank shareholders, who have seen an approximately 50% decline in the value of their shares since year-end 2006, may lose patience.
  
  
• Bank regulators are conducting stringent examinations, and in many cases are requiring banks with difficulties to execute agreements that require higher capital levels than are defined by the regulations as “well-capitalized.”
  
  
• Municipal bonds, in some cases, are showing signs of weaknesses as some governmental agencies are experiencing lower revenues. This places another traditional segment of a bank’s balance sheet under pressure from the slow economy.

On a positive note, bank earnings have been improving. The third-quarter earnings announcements indicate a general improvement in credit quality which has allowed many banks to lower their loan loss provision expense. Additionally, net interest margins have improved as funding costs have fallen. Many are also benefiting from higher mortgage banking income due to the high levels of loan refinancing activity.

Merger and Acquisition Activity
Year to date, there were 127 bank and thrift announced merger transactions. Within the merger activity this year are a number of acquisitions by private investors or entities formed to acquire financial institutions. It also appears that the merger market for deals other than FDIC sales is beginning to emerge again. There are signs that some banks have again decided to pursue strategic acquisitions. This could be an opportunity for many institutions that remain undercapitalized and hold underperforming loan portfolios to find a partner before the FDIC assumes control.

The median price to tangible book for transactions involving bank sellers was 99.1%, with a trailing twelve-month price to earnings multiple of 18.1. These multiples are significantly lower than the pricing paid on deals before the credit crisis.

Stephen Clinton, President,Capital Market Securities, Inc.

04/2010

2009 in Review
Pressure on the banking industry continued in 2009 as the damaging impact of the collapse of the housing bubble and the recession caused many banks to continue to record massive losses. Bank pricing declined further in the early part of 2009, before recovering over the later part of 2009. For the year, bank pricing declined 18.5% (as measured by the Nasdaq Bank Index).

There were many in early 2009 who were concerned that our financial system was on the verge of falling apart and that we were on the precipice of a depression. The Federal Reserve took dramatic steps to strengthen the financial system. The new Obama administration and Congress passed a $787 billion stimulus program in early 2009 to infuse the economy with new cash. TARP infusions into banks and others continued in 2009. Bank regulators conducted highly-publicized stress tests of the major banks to estimate the capital they might need to keep from failing. Wall Street and private investors stepped in to provide the capital for the major banks failing to meet the net worth stress test levels. The chart to the left illustrates the dramatic decline in bank pricing from February 20, 2007 through the end of 2009 where bank investors saw a loss of approximately 50% in the value of their holdings. The chart also reflects the stabilization in bank pricing beginning in the middle of 2009.

First Quarter 2010
The general stock market, and the market for bank stocks in particular, enjoyed a good first quarter in 2010. The chart on the next page provides pricing information for general market indicies compared to the Nasdaq Bank Index.

Economic Review

Manufacturing – The U.S. manufacturing index in March registered its best reading since 2004. U.S. auto sales surged 24% in March, helped by a strengthening economy and hefty buyer incentives offered by most manufacturers.

Employment – U.S. employers created jobs at the fastest pace in three years in March. However, nearly one-third of the employment gains were the result of temporary hiring for the Census.

Consumer Spending – Consumer spending, which makes up 70% of demand in the U.S. economy, increased 0.3% in February.

Housing – Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in January, providing support for reports that the housing market is stabilizing. The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index climbed 0.3%, matching the increase recorded in December. Sales of existing homes fell 0.6% in February despite lucrative tax credits available to home buyers. Investories of existing homes were reported at a 8.6-month supply at the current sales pace.

Deficit – As of February, the federal government’s fiscal year-to-date deficit was up 10.5% from fiscal year 2009. In February, the government ran its largest ever monthly deficit – $221 billion. The costs of the government’s stimulus programs, along with shrinking revenues due to the weaker economy, has created the large deficits.

Interest Rates – The Fed, to soften the recession, has maintained a highly accommodative policy holding interest rates to historically low levels. Additionally, the Fed has ballooned its balance sheet through the purchase of government debt and mortgage-related securities. The Fed owned $2.0 trillion securities, compared to $497 billion at the beginning of 2009. The Fed ended its program of buying mortgage-backed securities in March, a program begun in 2008 designed to support the weak real estate markets. The program has been given credit for lowering mortgage rates by as much as a percentage point. Mortgage rates are expected to move upward as a result of the end of the Fed’s buying program.

The economy is on the mend. The recession is over, as shown by the January Commerce Department’s announcement that gross domestic product rose a seasonally adjusted 5.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter. Most economists are predicting a slow recovery. It has been estimated that American households lost as much as $14 trillion due to the financial downturn. This loss of wealth is anticipated to constrain consumer spending for the foreseeable future. High levels of unemployment will also keep 2010 economic growth in check.

Concerns for Bankers in 2010

Politics – It has been two years since Bear Stearns collapsed. In that time we have faced the worst financial crisis since the Depression. Millions have lost jobs, housing prices have plummeted, and investors have lost trillions. In response to the banking industry’s responsibility for the crisis, the Senate Banking Committee passed a sweeping financial regulation bill in March. The bill addresses the formation of a consumer protection watchdog, “too big to fail,” transparency and accountability for derivatives and other exotic instruments, streamlined banking regulation, and financial industry executive compensation. When legislation is enacted, the far reaching implications of the final bill will impact every banker.

Commercial Real Estate – Declining values on commercial real estate looms as the next risk to banking. It has been reported that $650 billion of commercial real estate loans are coming due over the next four years, with $150 billion maturing in 2010. It is estimated that 43% of the loans due in 2010 exceed the current value of the properties they secure. The decline in the value of commercial real estate makes restructuring many of these loans difficult.

Interest Rate Risk – The cost of bank funding has benefited significantly by the low interest rate environment. While the Fed is expected to remain accommodative for some time, it is inevitable that interest rates will increase. Banks that have not taken actions to properly structure their balance sheets may suffer in a rising rate environment.

FDIC Insurance Premiums – In total, 140 banks and thrifts failed in 2009, and 41 additional banks were closed in the first quarter of 2010. In 2009, the FDIC entered into 115 government-assisted transactions with a cost to the deposit insurance fund averaging 28% of the failed institutions’ assets. The FDIC has offered loss-share agreements about 70% of the time in purchase and assumption agreements to entice buyers of failed banks. The aggregate cost to resolve failed banks may require additional special assessments in addition to the three-year prepayment of FDIC premiums paid by banks in 2009 to strengthen the insolvent FDIC insurance fund.

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae – The Obama administration remains unsure how to address the GSEs. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken over by the government and put into conservatorship in September 2008. The ultimate decision on the resolution of the GSEs could have a significant impact on bank mortgage lending activities and potentially present opportunities.

TARP – Over 700 financial institutions participated in TARP’s Capital Purchase Program. Total distributions to financial institutions participating in the CPP totaled approximately $300 billion. Approximately $150 billion has been repaid. SNL Securities has estimated that, for companies that have fully exited TARP including settlement or government sale of their warrants, the government earned an 8.5% annualized return. On the negative side, 74 TARP participants missed their February dividend payment. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the cost of the entire TARP program will be $109 billion. The bulk of these losses are expected from non-banks including AIG's $36 billion, and the auto manufacturers' $34 billion. The general public perception of the bank “bail out” from TARP and the associated cost to U.S. taxpayers are misconceptions that must be addressed by bankers.

2009 Merger and Acquisition Activity
Consolidation of the banking industry, which slowed in 2008, slowed even further in 2009. In 2009, there were 122 merger transaction (exclusive of bank failures), compared to 159 deals in 2008. This lowered activity compares to the 288 deals announced in 2007. The median price to tangible book for transactions involving bank sellers was 117%, with a trailing twelve-month price to earnings multiple of 18.2. The price to book multiple is down approximately 27% from 2008.

Bank Market Pricing - March 2010
As of the end of March, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 4.1% in 2010, compared to the Nasdaq Composite Index’s rise of 5.7%. The banking sector improved even more, with the Nasdaq Banking Index posting an increase of 13.1%. Banks benefited by the general belief that the loan losses are coming to an end and that bank profitability for 2010 will significantly improve.

Stephen Clinton, President, Capital Market Securities, Inc.

12/2009

Market Update
The U.S. economy ended the recession with the third-quarter GNP growing 3.5%. The strength of the recovery remains of concern as government pro¬grams designed to stimulate the economy near their end. The following issues highlight certain areas of the economy that merit watching:

• Unemployment - The jobless rate reached 9.8% in September, its highest level in 26 years. Unemployment is expected to remain high for some time as employers are expected to be hesitant to hire new employees until further strengthening of the economy is evident.
• Interest Rates - Short-term interest rates remain at historical lows while long-term rates have increased approximately 150 basis points since year end. Banks have been the beneficiary of lower rates as net interest margins have widened.
• Commercial Real Estate - Economists, among others, continue to express con¬cern over declining commercial real estate values due to the struggling economy. Capmark, one of the largest real estate lenders, filed for bankruptcy protection in October. Capmark, formerly the commercial real estate lending division of GMAC, was principally a lender on office towers, strip malls, and hotels. Vacancy rates at malls and shopping centers have risen to multi-year highs.
• Home Sales - Home sales in September climbed to the highest level in two years. Purchases jumped 9.4%. Partial credit for the improvement was being given to the first time homebuyer's tax credit that was scheduled to expire. (In October, legisla¬tion was being discussed to extend and/or expand the homebuyer’s tax credit.)
• Federal Reserve - The Fed has ballooned its balance sheet to $2.1 trillion from $870 billion prior to when the credit crisis began. The Fed has purchased close to $1 trillion of mortgage-backed securities since the start of the year, driving down mortgage rates. As the Fed plans to exit from this buying activity and ultimately move to reduce its holdings of mortgage-backed securities, where mortgage rates go is uncertain.
• Oil Prices - Oil prices rose 9.1% in October, ending at $77.00. Oil inventories have moved to near the highest levels in decades as the recession has significantly reduced the demand for oil. Short-term interest rates ended October with the 3-month T-Bill ending at 0.05%, down from 0.11% as of December 31, 2008. The 10-year T-Note as of the same date was at 3.41%, compared to 2.25% at year end 2008. The yield curve has steepened as long-term rates have moved up more than longer-term rates.

As of October 30, the Dow Jones Industrial Index had risen 10.7% in 2009, com¬pared to the Nasdaq Composite Index’s improvement of 29.7%. The banking sector, conversely, declined, with the SNL Banking Index posting a decrease of 3.2%.

Merger and Acquisition Activity
Through October 31, 2009, there were 102 bank and thrift announced merger transactions. This level of activity is lower than in prior years. The median price to tangible book for transactions involving bank sellers was 124% with a trailing twelve-month price to earnings multiple of 19.5. These multiples compare to 160% and 23.4 respectively for 2008. There have been 115 bank failures so far in 2009, the most since the savings and loan crisis in 1992.

Stephen Clinton, President of Capital Market Securities, Inc.

07/2008

It should come as no surprise to bankers that the credit crunch has taken its toll on financial institutions. Banks have been hit with loan losses, lower lending volumes, and higher loan loss provisions, leading to declining profitability for the industry. Market prices for banks have nose-dived as a result.

It was not too long ago that banks were flush with capital, and access to the capital market was welcomed. Banks routinely adopted share repurchase programs to lower their net worth ratios. Dividend payouts were regularly increased. Trust-preferred security offerings frequently provided banks with an alternative source of capital to fund growth. The capital market viewed the financial services industry in a favorable light.

Shareholders and regulators have become more focused on capital adequacy, as the credit crisis has worsened. We regularly hear about examiners demanding higher provisions for loan losses and strengthened capital positions. We have seen the prices of banks plummet, as rumors of the need for additional capital surface. In the second quarter, banks and thrifts raised over $90 billion in capital. Approximately 20% of the capital raised was common stock, preferred equity totaled 45%, senior debt totaled 23%, trust preferred securities was at 9%, and subordinated debt was at 3%.

The vast majority of the capital raised in the quarter was by major banks. Citigroup itself raised 23% of the total. Major banks have also announced reductions in dividends in another effort to preserve capital. Others have resorted to selling assets to generate capital or to shrink their asset base.

Community bankers must be prepared for the heightened focus on capital adequacy. Lower earnings will provide less capital than in prior years. Higher losses and a struggling economy will lead to higher loan loss reserve requirements. Access to the capital market will be more expensive and dilutive and, for some, unavailable.
We encourage community bankers to increase their attention on capital issues in their budgeting and strategic planning processes. With a higher scrutiny on capital by regulators and investors, issues surrounding profitability, growth, dividend policies, and capital contingency plans require increased focus. We are prepared to assist financial institutions evaluate these issues. For more information, please contact me at 1.800.376.8662 or click here to send an Email.

Stephen Clinton, President, Capital Market Securities, Inc

04/2008

Bank directors are charged with a variety of responsibilities. Shareholders expect the directorate to represent their best interests. Regulators demand that directors assume responsibility for the bank’s operation in a safe and sound manner and in compliance with a myriad of consumer protection regulations. The bank’s customers expect the directors to lead the bank in a manner where the bank operates as a good citizen, promoting the welfare of its community by providing for the market’s credit and investment needs. Employees want the directors to maintain their jobs and to promote a good working environment.

Should You Sell?

With responsibilities to such a diverse collection of parties, the role of a director can become very cloudy when the bank begins to consider whether the time is right to consider a sale. In a perfect world, the analysis should be straight forward. A bank is a corporation owned by its shareholders.
Therefore, the board of directors should compare the economic impact on the shareholders of a sale with the economic impact on the shareholders of remaining independent.

Typically, when considering a sale, the bank will employ a financial advisor to assist the board in evaluating a sale. The advisor will conduct an analysis of the financial prospects of the bank remaining independent and make an assessment of value implications to shareholders. Often, a range of values might be forecast using a variety of projection assumptions. Giving consideration to various risk factors, the advisor will compare the projected financial implications to an estimate of the sale value of the bank.

In my experience as an advisor to banks conducting such an analysis, rarely is the sale decision made based solely on what is the “best” financial alternative to the shareholder. Considering the variety of parties that directors represent, it is not surprising that other factors beyond the shareholders’ economic interest become involved in the decision matrix. The sale analysis typically evolves from a financial analysis to a judgment call.

The following examples detail instances that a bank decides to remain independent, even though the financial analysis indicated that shareholders would economically benefit from a sale:

• The board of directors is controlled by management. This may be the result of the recruiting process of directors where they feel an obligation to management for their positions, the level of ownership held by management, or due to other factors. Often, management may base their position regarding a sale on personal factors and on how a sale might impact them, the bank’s customers, and/or its employees, rather than from a shareholder fiduciary perspective.
• The board lacks a meaningful ownership position in the company. In this case, it is easier for directors to accept substandard bank performance or base their sale decision on other factors rather than shareholder best interest.
• Directors often “fall in love” with their prestigious positions and consider their personal position in the community derived from being affiliated with the bank. Two considerations typically surface: 1) directors don’t want to be the one to sell the local bank and 2) they don’t want to give up their status.

Young & Associates, Inc. is a bank consulting firm that is a strong advocate for community banking. We believe that community banks can operate successfully for the foreseeable future and strive to assure that we provide the support to help our clients remain independent. However, we also recognize that there are banks that should be seeking merger partners.

The profile of such bank sellers include the following:

• Banks experiencing regulatory problems where the resolution of the issues appears unlikely
• Banks who regularly fail to achieve average industry performance results
• Banks with weak management that are unwilling to upgrade management with proven leaders
• Banks that have achieved their corporate goals and lack the ambition or desire to reach for new goals
• Banks that are not competitive in today’s sophisticated financial marketplace and lack the resources to bring themselves up to a competitive level or are unwilling to make such a commitment

The Value of Strategic Planning

We believe that banks should regularly conduct strategic planning. The strategic planning process often includes an unbiased assessment of the sale analysis. Banks that believe in the strategic planning process and achieve their stated goals find the sale analysis typically leads to the conclusion that a sale is not in the shareholders’ best interest. Reaching a sale decision within this corporate philosophy becomes relatively simple for a director.

For banks that are not regularly assessing the decision concerning a sale, we encourage them to begin such a process. Board members should insist that this process be conducted as it provides evidence that the bank is focused on its fiduciary duty to shareholders. If the bank desires to avoid a sale and hopes not to be confronted with activist shareholders promoting a bank sale, the bank should become aware of the factors that require attention to justify continued independence. Thereafter, the directorate should monitor progress toward addressing such factors.

If you have questions about this article or would like to discuss our conducting an independent sale analysis for your bank, please contact me at 1.800.376.8662 or click here to send an Email.