By: Martina Dowidchuk, Senior Consultant
The stock market continues to remind us of its inefficiencies. Most banks saw their stock values decline last year despite the industry’s record levels of earnings, continuing growth, and strong asset quality levels. In fact, the month of December 2018 recorded the greatest monthly stock decline since 1931. The broad market index, the Nasdaq Composite Index, was down 9.5% for the month of December and the banks were impacted even more than the overall market with the Nasdaq Bank Index falling 14.1%. For the year 2018, bank prices declined by 17.9% as measured by the Nasdaq Bank Index. This market correction was caused by a combination of economic and political factors, as well as the market’s perception of their impact on the industry. The Nasdaq Bank Index has showed a considerable improvement since the end of 2018, but as of July 30, 2019, it continues to be more than 9% below the level it reached 12 months ago.
While there will always be external factors outside of any bank’s control affecting the market pricing, the intuitive fundamental relationships tend to remain true among broadly-traded stocks. Regardless of the overall market’s ups and downs, the market values of banks with a higher profitability, stronger growth prospects, and other positive fundamentals are typically higher when compared to banks with weaker performance. However, this is not always true for banks with a limited stock trading activity. To ensure that the improvements in the bank’s performance translate into the shareholder value, the earnings prospects and financial strength need to be proactively communicated to the proper audience so that investors realize the value of a community bank stock and the bank gets a proper credit for its performance.
One of the easiest and fastest proactive measures available is to obtain an independent third-party valuation of the bank’s stock. Professional appraisers use multiple valuation techniques that encompass both sound financial theory and the latest market realities. Different considerations are made depending on the type and purpose of the valuation. Some valuations may require a minority interest value (i.e., a trading value), while others may call for a controlling interest value (i.e., change of control value). A valuation report evaluates the bank’s performance from different perspectives and provides an immediate stock value estimate that can then be communicated to shareholders and potential investors, providing a base point for future trades, stock repurchases, employee stock ownership programs, etc. Furthermore, if the bank has not previously had a valuation of its stock completed, the result in many cases could be a significant, immediate increase in shareholder value as the bank and its shareholders realize the true value and potential of the stock.
For community banks, understanding and proactively managing the shareholder value can be vital for many reasons. Young & Associates, Inc. has been providing valuation services and advice encompassing a variety of transactions and valuation purposes for over 40 years. Our experience in merger and acquisition activities, bank formations, and other capital market transactions gives us the expertise to help our clients understand their market value and make informed decisions as they implement their strategic initiatives. For more information on how Young & Associates, Inc. can assist your bank in this area, give me a call at 330.422.3449 or send an email to [email protected].