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The future of mortgage loan buybacks

By Donald Stimpert, manager of secondary market QC, Young & Associates

Understanding the rising risk of loan buybacks

The secondary mortgage market is evolving rapidly, and with it, lenders face increasing pressure to maintain strict quality control (QC) standards. Loan buybacks — once considered an occasional risk — have become a growing concern as investors, government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and regulatory bodies scrutinize loan origination and underwriting processes more closely.

Recent economic uncertainty, fluctuating interest rates and regulatory changes have only amplified repurchase risks, making it imperative for financial institutions to adopt proactive strategies to mitigate potential buybacks before they impact profitability.

Why are mortgage loan buybacks increasing?

Several factors contribute to the rise in loan repurchase demands, including:

1. Heightened investor scrutiny

With a more volatile lending environment, investors and GSEs such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are intensifying post-closing reviews to identify underwriting errors, miscalculations, and misrepresentations.

2. Rising interest rates and loan performance issues

As interest rates climb, borrowers with recent mortgages may be at a higher risk of delinquency. A worsening performance trend in loans increases investor caution, leading them to revisit underwriting quality and enforce buybacks when defects are found.

3. Evolving regulatory standards

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and other regulators continue to refine lending requirements, particularly around fair lending, borrower income verification, and compliance with TRID (TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure) rules. Lenders who fail to maintain strict adherence to these standards may see increased buyback requests.

4. Defect trends in loan underwriting

Recent QC reports indicate a surge in defects related to:

  • Income calculation errors
  • Debt-to-income (DTI) miscalculations
  • Missing documentation
  • Undisclosed liabilities
  • Misrepresentation of borrower information

Even minor discrepancies can trigger a repurchase demand, highlighting the need for enhanced QC measures.

Strategies to minimize repurchase risk

To reduce exposure to loan buybacks, lenders must strengthen their QC frameworks and proactively address risk areas before loans reach the secondary market.

1. Strengthen pre-funding and post-closing QC reviews

Implementing a robust pre-funding QC process helps catch potential defects before loans are sold, significantly reducing repurchase risk. Post-closing audits should be conducted consistently, ensuring that any issues are corrected before investor scrutiny.

2. Enhance data validation and borrower verification

Investors are increasingly focused on data integrity. Lenders must adopt advanced verification tools to cross-check borrower information, income, employment history, and undisclosed debts, minimizing the risk of fraud and errors.

3. Implement targeted sampling for QC reviews

Rather than relying solely on random sampling, lenders should integrate risk-based QC sampling that focuses on high-risk loan categories, such as self-employed borrowers, non-traditional income sources, or jumbo loans.

4. Maintain open communication with investors and GSEs

Establishing proactive dialogue with investors, servicers, and GSEs can help lenders identify evolving QC expectations and regulatory shifts, allowing them to adjust policies before issues escalate into buyback requests.

5. Conduct regular staff training and compliance refreshers

Underwriting and QC staff should receive continuous training on updated investor guidelines, industry best practices, and regulatory changes. Well-informed teams are less likely to overlook critical details that lead to defects.

A more proactive approach to mortgage QC

The risk of loan buybacks is unlikely to disappear, but financial institutions that take a proactive approach to mortgage quality control will be better positioned to minimize losses, maintain strong investor relationships, and protect their bottom line.

By integrating technology-driven audits, enhanced borrower validation, and risk-based QC sampling, lenders can significantly reduce repurchase exposure and navigate the evolving secondary market with confidence.

Is your institution prepared to mitigate repurchase risk? Young & Associates offers customized Mortgage QC solutions designed to enhance your quality control processes and protect your loan portfolio. Contact us today to learn how we can help safeguard your secondary market loan sales.

2024 housing market outlook: Implications for mortgage lenders

By: Donald Stimpert, manager of secondary market QC Services

Fannie Mae’s recent revised forecast for 2024 and beyond unveils a nuanced projection that holds significance for community banks and credit unions navigating the intricate landscape of the housing market. The insights presented by Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group encapsulate essential indicators and predictions that will influence the housing and mortgage sectors in the forthcoming year.

Economic deceleration and housing recovery

The December report anticipates a potential economic slowdown in 2024, aligned with a gradual recuperation in both home sales and mortgage originations. Although initially forecasting a modest recession for 2023, the economic resilience has surprised many market analysts. Fannie Mae now perceives the possibility of a softer landing due to disinflation and low unemployment rates. However, the housing sector faced challenges in 2023, witnessing record-low affordability, lock-in effects, and a severe deficit in available for-sale housing, leading to the lowest existing home sales since the Great Financial Crisis.

Factors impacting home sales in 2024

Fannie Mae’s analysis points to a challenging landscape ahead. 2023 set a record low for existing home sales since 2010, setting the stage for a gradual recovery in 2024. Yet, obstacles like unaffordability, lock-in effects, and constrained inventory persist, likely causing a marginal impact on 2024’s total home sales compared to the previous year.

Despite glimpses of potential relief, these hurdles are expected to persist. Although the decline in the 10-year Treasury rate offers a glimmer of hope for better sales and mortgage originations, persistently high mortgage rates forecast subdued home sales at around 4.8 million in 2024, with a modest increase to 5.4 million by 2025.

October’s rock-bottom existing sales at 3.79 million could signal a turning point. Recent shifts in purchase mortgage applications, fueled by notable drops in mortgage rates, hint at a possible sales uptick. This trajectory depends on further rate moderation, potentially leading to increased sales.

Moreover, Fannie Mae’s projection of a slight dip in new home sales contrasts with unexpected buyer resilience amidst rising rates. This unexpected stability, boosted by concessions from builders, hints at sustained sales consistency.

This sales resilience, coupled with an unforeseen home price rebound, shapes Fannie Mae’s view on mortgage originations. Despite fluctuations, the forecast indicates a subtle upward trend, aligning with current origination levels.

Upgraded projections for single-family mortgage originations

Amidst these challenges, Fannie Mae projects a positive trajectory in total single-family mortgage originations:

  • $1.5 trillion in 2023
  • $1.9 trillion in 2024
  • $2.3 trillion in 2025

This upgrade stems from a positive outlook on purchase mortgage origination volumes. Forecasts indicate a substantial increase to $1.4 trillion in 2024, a noteworthy leap from the anticipated $1.3 trillion in 2023. Looking ahead, the trajectory continues its upward trend, projecting $1.6 trillion in purchase origination volumes by 2025. Simultaneously, refinance origination volumes are on an upward trajectory, poised to surge to $451 billion in 2024 and further escalate to $686 billion in 2025.

Dynamics of mortgage rates and home sales

The report reflects on the impact of declining interest rates, projecting a shift to an average FRM30 rate of 6.7% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025, down from the current 7.4% in Q4 2023. However, the transition in monetary policy might introduce volatility in mortgage rates, presenting a potential risk factor for these projections.

New vs. existing home sales, housing starts and price growth

The resilience of new home sales, unexpected amidst economic uncertainties, and the lower-than-expected impact of high mortgage rates on sales showcase a trend where buyers seem less affected by increased rates compared to previous years. Homebuilders’ concessions, including mortgage rate buydowns, aim to stimulate sales amidst these challenges.

Implications for community banks and credit unions

Understanding Fannie Mae’s 2024 outlook is crucial for community banks and credit unions to tailor their strategies. The projected increase in mortgage originations presents both opportunities and challenges, urging these institutions to adapt swiftly to evolving market dynamics and consumer behaviors.

In conclusion, Fannie Mae’s revised outlook for 2024 emphasizes the need for adaptive strategies by community banks and credit unions to harness opportunities amid the projected housing market landscape. Staying informed about these forecasts will empower these financial institutions to navigate potential challenges while capitalizing on growth prospects effectively.

Secondary market quality control

Young & Associates stands as a trusted ally for financial institutions amid Fannie Mae’s housing market projections. Specializing in secondary mortgage quality control, our QC services serve as a shield against risks, meeting federal and private investor requirements, including those of Fannie Mae. As Fannie Mae anticipates a gradual housing market recovery and increased mortgage activities, partnering with Y&A can fortify your institutions’ risk management strategies. Our meticulous evaluations ensure compliance readiness and accuracy, aligning financial entities with market shifts highlighted by Fannie Mae, securing robust mortgage operations for the future. Visit our website for more information or contact us here.

Meet the upcoming Fannie Mae prefunding deadline on 9/1/23

Upcoming Fannie Mae prefunding deadline

Are you prepared for the upcoming Fannie Mae prefunding deadline on 9/1/23? On March 1, 2023, Fannie Mae announced changes to its selling guide that will take effect on September 1, 2023. These changes were made to improve overall loan quality and reduce the number of loans requiring remediation by lenders.

What’s changing?

As part of these changes, lenders are now required to conduct a minimum number of prefunding reviews each month. The total number of loans reviewed must meet the lesser of the following criteria:

  • 10 percent of the prior month’s total number of closings, or
  • 750 loans

Regulators encourage lenders to implement these changes immediately. They must be in full compliance by September 1.

Note: The 10 percent loan population in the September 1 – September 30 cycle will be based on the total number of loans closed in August.

How Young & Associates can assist with your pre-closing QC reviews

At Young & Associates, we understand the importance of staying ahead of the curve. With today’s downturn in mortgage loan volume and high origination costs, our independent pre-closing QC reviews can be a viable option for your organization. Let us help you navigate these changes seamlessly and mitigate the risk of noncompliance.

By conducting pre-closing Quality Control reviews, we can:

  • Provide important and timely information to origination staff prior to closing a loan.
  • Test residential mortgage loans and origination sources to identify and address loan defects prior to closing.
  • Verify that loans conform to your organization’s policies and meet insurer and guarantor requirements.
  • Mitigate the risk of noncompliance.
  • Alleviate the time and staffing issues you may be facing in today’s volatile market.
  • Control your costs by eliminating the need to maintain someone in-house to perform this work.

Why choose Y&A? Superior results at a lower cost

Young & Associates, Inc. is an industry leader and provider of QC services for over 45 years and provides mortgage quality control services to meet government-sponsored enterprise and agency requirements, including Fannie Mae. With a proven track record of delivering superior results for over four decades, partnering with us ensures that you can expect:

  • High-quality, reliable services
  • Expertise  in Fannie Mae guidelines and regulations
  • Unparalleled experience in the mortgage industry
  • Custom solutions tailored to your needs

Contact us today

Don’t let the Fannie Mae prefunding deadline catch you off guard. Reach out to Young & Associates today for professional assistance with your pre-closing QC reviews. Learn more about Y&A’s mortgage quality control services by clicking here. For more information about us and how we can assist you with your pre-closing QC reviews, contact us by phone at 330.422.3482 or email at mgerbick@younginc.com. We look forward to partnering with you to ensure compliance and success!

Why banks should QC in-portfolio loans

By Donald Stimpert, manager of secondary market QC, Young & Associates

As a result of higher mortgage interest rates and inflation continuing to weigh on affordability, Fannie Mae revised downward their forecast for 2022 single-family mortgage market originations. Fannie Mae now expects 2022 single-family mortgage market originations of $2.3 trillion. This is a 49 percent decrease from 2021. Approximately 70 percent of activity for the full year of 2022 is expected to come from purchase originations.

Fannie Mae currently projects a further decline in single-family mortgage market originations in 2023, to $1.7 trillion. 77 percent of that activity comes from purchase originations. The organization expects that multifamily mortgage market originations for 2022 will be between $400 billion and $430 billion. This is down from the $475 billion estimated at the start of this year. This is due primarily to rising interest rates and a slowing in multifamily property sales.

How Young & Associates can help

As a result of the higher mortgage interest rates, more lenders are holding on to their loans and keeping them as in-house portfolio loans. Y&A currently works with several clients to conduct not only residential secondary market loans, but in-house portfolio loans as well. By reviewing in-house portfolio loans, Young & Associates will provide the same QC services as we do on the residential secondary market loans while providing financial institutions with the peace of mind that underwriting standards are maintained in accordance with policy directives.

Organizations with a commitment to quality control recognize that loan quality begins before an application is taken. It then continues throughout the entire mortgage origination process. Young & Associates has provided education, outsourcing, and a wide variety of consulting services to community financial institutions for over 44 years. We are committed to your bank’s future success and look forward to assisting you to ensure or enhance that success. Please click here to learn more, or contact me directly at 1.330.442.3459 or dstimpert@younginc.com.

Brushing up on disclosures for ARMs

By: William J. Showalter, CRCM, CRP, Senior Consultant

Now that interest rates are moving up, many bankers are blowing the dust off their adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) loan offerings. Interest rates for fixed-rate loans have been so low for quite some time, which made them much more appealing to mortgage loan customers. But now with rates increasing, the lower initial rates of ARM loans are beginning to look more appealing to at least some borrowers.

The problem is that many of us are so out of practice at making ARMs that we need a refresher to remind us of what we need to do. This article will serve as a primer to help us re-learn how to meet disclosure requirements for ARM loans.

Different types of ARMs

When we think of an adjustable-rate mortgage, the first thing that comes to mind is likely the classic loan with an interest rate that can change at some regular interval based on the movement of some external index. There is a wide variety of initial time periods for which the rate is fixed and later intervals for rate changes over the life of the loan. Common initial fixed periods are one, three, five, seven, or 10 years, while probably the most common interval for later rate changes is one year.

But that is not where the variety of ARMs ends. The Official Staff Commentary on Regulation Z discusses a number of other loan structures that are considered to be variable-rate transactions subject to the ARM disclosure requirements.

These additional loan structures are:

  • Renewable balloon-payment loans where the creditor is both unconditionally obligated to renew the balloon-payment loan at the consumer’s option (or is obligated to renew subject to conditions within the consumer’s control) and has the option of increasing the interest rate at the time of renewal
  • Preferred-rate loans where the terms of the legal obligation provide that the initial underlying rate is fixed but will increase upon the occurrence of some event (e.g., an employee leaving the employ of the creditor, or an automatic payment arrangement being ended) and the note reflects the preferred rate (though a number of the ARM disclosures are not required for preferred-rate loans)
  • “Price-level-adjusted mortgages” or other indexed mortgages that have a fixed rate of interest but provide for periodic adjustments to payments and the loan balance to reflect changes in an index measuring prices or inflation (again a number of the ARM disclosures are not required for price-level-adjusted loans)

It is important to note that graduated-payment mortgages and step-rate transactions without a variable-rate feature are not considered variable-rate transactions under Regulation Z. This is likely because changes over the term of the loan are known at the outset – specified payment and/or interest rate increases.

Application disclosures

Two ARM disclosures must be given to applicants for such loans at the time an application form is provided or before the consumer pays a non-refundable fee, whichever is earlier. There is an exception allowing the disclosures to be delivered or placed in the mail not later than three business days following receipt of a consumer’s application when the application reaches the creditor by telephone or through an intermediary agent or broker.

For an application that is accessed by the consumer in electronic form – including an online application portal – the required ARM disclosures may be provided to the consumer in electronic form on or with the application.

These two early ARM disclosures are:

  • The booklet titled Consumer Handbook on Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (CHARM booklet), or a suitable substitute, and
  • A loan program disclosure for each variable-rate program in which the consumer expresses an interest (each comprised of 12 specified pieces of information about the ARM program)

TRID disclosures

The Loan Estimate (LE) and Closing Disclosure (CD) both require some additional disclosures for ARMs. The LE must be provided to an applicant no later than the third business day after their application is received by the lender, while the CD must be provided no later than three business days before consummation. (There are also situations permitting or requiring these disclosures to be revised, but that’s a subject for another time.)

The particular TRID (TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosures) items impacted by a loan being an ARM are:

  • “Interest Rate” in the “Loan Terms” section – If the interest rate at consummation is not known, the rate disclosed must be the fully-indexed rate, which means the interest rate calculated using the index value and margin at the time of consummation. The lender also should disclose “Yes” for the question “Can this amount increase after closing?” In addition, disclose the frequency of interest rate adjustments, the date when the interest rate may first adjust, the maximum interest rate, and the first date when the interest rate can reach the maximum interest rate, followed by a reference to the Adjustable Interest Rate (AIR) Table (discussed below).
  • “Monthly Principal & Interest Payment” in the “Loan Terms” section – If the initial periodic payment is not known because it will be based on an interest rate at consummation that is not known at the time the LE must be provided, for example, if it is based on an external index that may fluctuate before consummation, this disclosure must be based on the fully-indexed rate disclosed above. The lender also should disclose “Yes” for the question “Can this amount increase after closing?” In addition, disclose the scheduled frequency of adjustments to the periodic principal and interest payment, the due date of the first adjusted principal and interest payment, the maximum possible periodic principal and interest payment, and the date when the periodic principal and interest payment may first equal the maximum principal and interest payment.
  • “Principal & Interest” payment in the “Projected Payments” section – The table of payments (principal and interest, mortgage insurance, etc.) will include more than one column due to the possible (projected) changes in the interest rate, up to a maximum of four columns. The maximum principal and interest payment amounts (in each column) are determined by assuming that the interest rate in effect throughout the loan term is the maximum possible interest rate, and the minimum amounts are determined by assuming that the interest rate in effect throughout the loan term is the minimum possible interest rate. If the ARM has a negative amortization feature, the maximum payment amounts must reflect this feature, as spelled out in Regulation Z.
  • “Adjustable Interest Rate (AIR) Table” – An ARM must disclose a separate table in the “Closing Cost Details” section on the LE and the “Additional Information About This Loan” section on the CD, under the heading “Adjustable Interest Rate (AIR) Table,” that contains specified information about the index and margin, increases in the interest rate, initial interest rate, minimum and maximum interest rate, frequency of adjustments, and limits on interest rate changes.
  • “Annual Percentage Rate (APR)” and “Total Interest Percentage (TIP)” in the “Comparisons” section on the LE and the Loan Calculations section on the CD – Calculation of both these values must account for variations in the interest rate permitted for the ARM.

Interest rate/payment change notices

The creditor, assignee, or servicer of an ARM secured by a borrower’s principal dwelling must provide consumers with written notices in connection with the adjustment of interest rates in accordance with the loan contract that results in a corresponding adjustment to the payment.  These notices must be separate from any other disclosures or notices.

There are exemptions for the following:

ARMs with a term of one year or less; first interest rate adjustment to an ARM if the first payment at the adjusted level is due within 210 days after consummation and the new interest rate disclosed at consummation was not an estimate; or when the lender/servicer is subject to the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act (FDCPA) for the loan and the customer has sent a notice to cease communications.

The content for these change notices is spelled out in detail in Regulation Z and the timing depends on whether the rate/payment change is the first one to occur for the ARM loan or a subsequent change.

  • The initial adjustment notice must be provided to consumers at least 210 days (but no more than 240 days) before the first payment at the adjusted level is due. If the first payment at the adjusted level is due within the first 210 days after consummation, the disclosures must be provided at consummation.
  • All subsequent adjustment notices generally must be provided to consumers at least 60 day (but no more than 120 days) before the first payment at the adjusted level is due. The disclosures must be provided to consumers at least 25 days (but no more than 120 days) before the first payment at the adjusted level is due for ARMs with uniformly scheduled interest rate adjustments occurring every 60 days or more frequently and for ARMs originated prior to January 10, 2015 in which the loan contract requires the adjusted interest rate and payment to be calculated based on the index figure available as of a date that is less than 45 days prior to the adjustment date.

Periodic statements

If your bank has taken advantage of the “coupon book” exception from periodic statements for mortgage loans with fixed rates, you will have to begin producing periodic statements when you begin originating ARMs. Or, you will need to expand your statement output as more of the bank’s loan production shifts to ARMs from fixed-rate loans (if you still want to use the coupon books exception for your fixed-rate lending).

Conclusion

If your institution is like many community banks and has not been making ARMs for some time, you likely have some work to do to ramp ARM lending back up. Systems and disclosures need to be updated and/or activated. Disclosures need to be procured or prepared. Staff needs to be trained, at least some refresher training.  Good luck re-ARMing up.

The purpose of quality control − Loan origination volume

Fannie Mae predicts $2.72 trillion in mortgage originations in 2021 and $2.47 trillion in 2022. They anticipate purchase volume to go from $1.53 trillion in 2020 to $1.6 trillion in 2021 and $1.64 trillion in 2022.

The U.S. mortgage industry earned an average profit of $4,202 per loan on its way to record volume and a record $4.4 trillion in new loans originated in 2020, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association — and the perfect storm of low interest rates and high home values has kept the gold rush going in 2021. In other words, high volumes of mortgage loans are a big profit for banks, credit unions, etc.

Contrary to popular thought, most of the time when a bank originates a mortgage loan, it is sold on what is called the “secondary market” to provide the banks with instant profits/liquidity (cash). This is done simply because smaller banks/credit unions, which are the main players in the secondary market, incur costs associated with servicing or managing the loans on their books. This is where Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Mortgage Partnership Finance, and many other companies come into play.

Fannie and Freddie purchase home loans made by private firms, banks, and credit unions (provided the loans meet strict size, credit, and underwriting standards), package those loans into mortgage-backed securities, and guarantee the timely payment of principal and interest on those securities to outside investors. Fannie and Freddie also hold some home loans and mortgage securities in their own investment portfolios.

How can Young & Associates assist with quality control?

Loans eligible for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac must adhere to strict size, credit, and underwriting standards. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require that all loans meet these standards. They then require a certain randomized sample to undergo a “Quality Control” review  ̶  which is what Young & Associates does.

We are an industry leader and provider of QC services for over 44 years and provide mortgage quality control services to meet government-sponsored enterprise and agency requirements. As a high-level definition, our QC consultants review a 10% sample of all loans originated in a period for a client (month/quarter) and reassure that it adheres to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Guidelines.

There are also other investors and Guarantors (two different terms), such as the Federal Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). HUD consists of FHA and VA loans. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require the reviews to be done within 90 days of the prior period-end. HUD requires the reviews to be done in 60 days.

Superior results at a lower cost

Maintaining the mortgage QC function in-house can be difficult given the time, staffing, and expertise required. Control the risks of noncompliance and reduce your costs by outsourcing your quality control to Young & Associates.

Our mortgage quality control services include:

  • Quality Control Plan Development
  • Quality Control Reviews − approved, denied, and defaulted file reviews
  • FHA Branch Audits
  • Early Payment Default Review
  • FHA/VA Denied Loan Review
  • Pre-closing QC Reviews
  • Reverse Audits

Organizations with a commitment to quality control recognize that quality begins before an application is taken. It then continues throughout the entire mortgage origination process.

Young & Associates is committed to your organization’s future success. We look forward to assisting you to ensure or enhance that success. Please visit our website, www.younginc.com, to learn more about us or contact Dave Reno at 330.442.3455 or dreno@younginc.com.

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